Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?

Low probability of US striking 14 countries in 2026, with market favoring NO.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of the US striking 14 countries in 2026, with a probability of only 2.80% for YES. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a 6.3% chance, reflecting a general sentiment of stability in US foreign relations. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors NO at 97.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 6.3%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7036 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other op