Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?

The market strongly predicts no US strikes on three countries in 2026.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability of no US strikes on three countries in 2026, aligning with the Pulse AI's assessment of a 98% chance for the same outcome. The confidence level of 75 suggests moderate certainty in this prediction, with a low probability assigned to the alternative outcome.

• 1 Market consensus is firmly against US strikes in 2026.
• 2 Pulse AI probability shows minimal expectation of military action.
• 3 Current geopolitical climate appears stable, supporting the NO outcome.
• 4 The market is considered fairly priced with a low edge.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in sentiment, but confidence remains strong.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other op