Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

Low probability of the U.S. testing a nuclear weapon by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 2.45% chance of the U.S. testing a nuclear weapon by March 31, 2026, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 5.95%, suggesting some uncertainty but still favoring a 'NO' outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests slight uncertainty.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of U.S. nuclear tests.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 513 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.