Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?

The market strongly favors no strikes on Somalia in March 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood of no US strikes on Somalia, with a 99.85% chance. The AI model also supports this view, although with a slightly higher probability for potential strikes at 3.65%. The edge suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in the predictions.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors no strikes occurring.
• 2 AI model shows a marginally higher probability for strikes.
• 3 Current edge indicates fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 277 hours.

This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or