Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Market leans towards fewer than 8 major earthquakes by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a 57% probability for fewer than 8 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher by June 30, suggesting skepticism about the occurrence of such seismic events. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, with a slight tilt towards the possibility of 8 or more earthquakes, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability favors fewer than 8 earthquakes by June 30.
• 2 Pulse AI probability shows slight inclination towards YES but remains cautious.
• 3 Confidence level at 65 indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in seismic data.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.