Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Market favors fewer than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0+ in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 70% probability that there will be fewer than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher in 2026. The Pulse AI model aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a slightly higher chance for the YES outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards fewer than 11 significant earthquakes.
• 2 The market probability and AI prediction are closely aligned.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Historical data on earthquake frequency may influence future predictions.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.