Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Market favors fewer than 14 or more than 16 major earthquakes in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that there will be either fewer than 14 or more than 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher in 2026, with a probability of 79% for the NO outcome. The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment, suggesting a balanced view on the likelihood of significant seismic activity in that year.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards fewer than 14 or more than 16 earthquakes.
• 2 The market probability is closely matched by the AI's assessment.
• 3 Historical data on earthquakes may influence future predictions.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.