Market strongly favors no strikes on Somalia in March 2026.
The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.65% for no strikes occurring in Somalia between 18 and 21 times in March 2026. In contrast, the AI probability indicates a slightly higher chance for strikes at 3.85%, suggesting some divergence in sentiment. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.
This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or