The market predicts a high likelihood of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher by March 22.
With a market probability of 99.4% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that at least one significant earthquake will occur before the deadline. The Pulse AI probability further supports this view, indicating a low chance of zero earthquakes. The edge suggests the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in the predictions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.