Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

The market predicts no earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher by June 30.

With a market probability of 0% for exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher, the consensus is strongly against this outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a high likelihood of at least one significant earthquake occurring before the deadline.

• 1 Market shows unanimous confidence in at least one major earthquake occurring.
• 2 Current sentiment strongly favors the occurrence of earthquakes over the specified period.
• 3 Historical data suggests that significant earthquakes are common within this timeframe.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 2315 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.