Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

Market shows a close split on the likelihood of one VEI 4+ eruption in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a nearly even split between the probabilities of exactly one VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption occurring in 2026, with a slight lean towards 'NO'. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting uncertainty in the forecasting of volcanic activity for that year.

• 1 Current market probability shows a slight preference for 'NO'.
• 2 The AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.

If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&che