Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?

Market indicates a low probability of exactly 3 significant earthquakes by March 15.

The prediction market shows a 2.20% probability for exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher by March 15, suggesting a strong belief that this outcome is unlikely. With a high NO probability of 97.8%, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a consensus against this scenario occurring within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows that occurrences of exactly 3 earthquakes of this magnitude are rare.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, with no significant fluctuations in betting patterns.
• 4 The confidence level of 70/100 indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.