Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?

Low probability of exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher by March 8.

The market indicates a strong belief that there will not be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher by the specified date, with a 99.7% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood for 'YES', suggesting a consensus on the unlikelihood of this event occurring.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows low frequency of exactly 3 major earthquakes in similar timeframes.
• 3 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 4 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced with minimal discrepancies.
• 5 Lack of imminent geological events reduces likelihood of a shift in predictions.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.