Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?

Market indicates a low probability of exactly 4 significant earthquakes by March 15.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the occurrence of exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher by the specified date, with a probability of only 1.05% for 'YES'. This suggests that participants believe such an event is highly unlikely based on current data and trends.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 98.95%.
• 2 Historical data shows that occurrences of exactly 4 significant earthquakes in a short time frame are rare.
• 3 Market pricing indicates no edge, suggesting fair valuation of probabilities.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 70/100, reflecting some uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect participant strategies and market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.