Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?

The market strongly favors no more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher by March 8.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.95% for no more than 5 significant earthquakes occurring by March 8, indicating strong confidence in this outcome. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of exceeding this threshold. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.95.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows a low frequency of earthquakes of this magnitude in short time frames.
• 3 Market pricing indicates a well-balanced assessment of risks.
• 4 The confidence level of 70/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.