Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

Market suggests a high likelihood of a head of state in Venezuela by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that there will be a head of state in Venezuela by the end of 2026, with a 99.35% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, reflecting a low probability for the absence of a head of state.

• 1 Current market probability strongly favors the presence of a head of state.
• 2 The edge of 0.35 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 3 High confidence level of 75 suggests market stability.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Low liquidity may affect market responsiveness to new information.

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effecti