Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The market strongly favors Tony Finau not winning the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Currently, the prediction market shows a 100% probability that Tony Finau will not win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with a very low AI probability of 1% for a win. This suggests a strong consensus against his chances, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 85 out of 100. The time to expiry is unknown, which may affect future sentiment as the event approaches.

• 1 Market probability indicates a strong belief Finau will not win.
• 2 AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level suggests a reliable market assessment.
• 4 No recent performance indicators favor Finau's chances.
• 5 The unknown time to expiry may lead to future volatility.

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament.

If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".

If an unlisted player wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If no winner is announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).