Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Toy Story 5 is unlikely to be the top grossing movie of 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Toy Story 5 being the top grossing movie of 2026, with a 97.2% probability for 'NO'. Despite a slightly higher AI probability of 4.8% for 'YES', the overall sentiment indicates skepticism about its box office potential.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 97.2%.
• 2 AI predictions suggest a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.8%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 7123 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.