Will Train Dreams - Train Dreams win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Train Dreams winning Best Original Song.

Current market probabilities indicate a very low chance of Train Dreams winning Best Original Song, with a 99.65% likelihood of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.85%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market's confidence level.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a consensus against Train Dreams winning.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance for 'YES', reflecting some market uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 5 With 120 hours to expiry, there is time for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Song.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.