Will Train Dreams win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Train Dreams winning Best Adapted Screenplay.

Current market probabilities indicate a significant likelihood that Train Dreams will not win Best Adapted Screenplay, with a 99.65% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES'. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a 'NO' outcome at 99.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 2.35%.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates low confidence in Train Dreams winning.
• 4 Market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.