Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?

Low probability of Turkey striking Iran by April 30, with market favoring a 'NO' outcome.

The prediction market indicates a 95.7% likelihood that Turkey will not strike Iran by the end of April, aligning closely with the Pulse AI's assessment of 92.2%. The low probabilities suggest that current geopolitical tensions are not perceived as escalating to military action in the near term.

• 1 Market probability shows strong confidence in a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still indicates low risk of conflict.
• 3 Current geopolitical dynamics appear stable, reducing likelihood of military action.
• 4 Market sentiment reflects a cautious approach to regional stability.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains low-risk overall.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.