Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

The market leans towards no UAE strike on Iran by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a higher likelihood of no military action by the UAE against Iran before the end of March. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities suggest a consensus that conflict is less likely, reflecting a cautious geopolitical environment.

• 1 Market probability for a strike is 37.5%, indicating skepticism about military action.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market, suggesting consensus on low likelihood of conflict.
• 3 Confidence level at 85/100 indicates strong belief in current market pricing.
• 4 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant misalignment.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.