Will UK strike Iran by April 30?

The market strongly favors that the UK will not strike Iran by April 30.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of the UK striking Iran, with a 96.95% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a consensus that such an action is improbable within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Market probability shows strong confidence against a UK strike on Iran.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still indicates low risk.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 indicates solid backing for current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry of 741 hours allows for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.