Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of the UK striking Iran by March 31.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against the UK striking Iran, with a 82.5% likelihood of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may not escalate to military action within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Market probability for a UK strike is low at 17.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 21%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the situation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.