Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Ukraine is unlikely to win the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final according to current market odds.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Ukraine winning the Jury Prize in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final, with a probability of only 1.25% for a YES outcome. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which also indicates a low likelihood of Ukraine's success, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Ukraine.
• 2 Historical performance of Ukraine in Eurovision may influence perceptions.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable with a clear consensus.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the professional juries in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.