Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?

Ukraine's chances of winning Eurovision 2026 are currently very low.

The prediction market shows a 1.95% probability for Ukraine winning Eurovision 2026, indicating strong skepticism. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 3.95%, but both figures suggest that the market views Ukraine as an unlikely winner. With a confidence level of 80/100 and a time to expiry of 1636 hours, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Ukraine.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest limited confidence in Ukraine's chances.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Time remaining until the event is significant at 1636 hours.
• 5 Potential for sentiment shifts if Ukraine's cultural influence grows.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.