Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?

The market strongly favors the UK not winning Eurovision 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of the UK winning Eurovision 2026, with a 99.2% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a minimal chance of victory at 1%. Given the edge of 0.2, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 99.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 99%.
• 3 Confidence level is relatively high at 75/100, indicating some certainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1637 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Edge of 0.2 suggests the market is fairly valued with little arbitrage opportunity.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.