Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?

The market predicts a high likelihood of a strike on Iran by March 5, 2026.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike and an AI probability of 95.5%, there is strong consensus on this outcome. The edge of -4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced, indicating confidence in the prediction.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a strike occurring.
• 2 AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment, indicating reliability.
• 3 The edge suggests no significant mispricing in the market.
• 4 High confidence level reflects strong belief in the prediction.
• 5 Uncertainty around time to expiry may affect future sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the thir