Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?

Market indicates a strong likelihood of USD falling to 1.5M rials by March 31.

The market probability for the USD falling to 1.5 million Iranian rials stands at 74%, suggesting significant confidence in this outcome. However, the Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 65%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 9 points. With 436 hours until expiry, market dynamics could shift based on geopolitical developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a decline in USD value against the rial.
• 2 The high probability reflects concerns over Iranian economic stability.
• 3 Historical trends show volatility in currency exchange rates during geopolitical tensions.
• 4 Market liquidity may influence the ability to capitalize on price movements.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 436 hours until the market closes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or below the specified price for any day between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).

A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.

Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.

The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the March 31, 2026, exchange rate data is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.