Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?

Venezuela is unlikely to recognize Israel by June 30, with a low market probability.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Venezuela will not recognize Israel by the end of June, with an 86.5% probability against recognition. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus on this geopolitical stance. The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced, with moderate confidence in the outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Venezuela's historical stance on Israel has been largely negative.
• 3 The market's edge suggests no significant mispricing at this time.
• 4 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.