Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Wagner Moura has a low probability of winning Best Actor at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates a 3.20% chance of Wagner Moura winning Best Actor, with a strong consensus against it at 96.8%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 5.2%, but overall confidence in a NO outcome remains high at 75/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market appears to be fairly priced with a small edge.
• 3 Wagner Moura's chances are significantly lower than competitors.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited, adding pressure to market dynamics.
• 5 Historical trends suggest low likelihood for upset wins in this category.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.