Will Wake Up Dead Man win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

Wake Up Dead Man is highly unlikely to win Best Adapted Screenplay.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Wake Up Dead Man winning Best Adapted Screenplay, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 99% probability to the NO outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a low edge.

• 1 Market probability shows a clear NO at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 99% NO.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 85/100, indicating strong market belief.
• 4 The edge of 1 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which could affect future sentiment shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.