Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?

Low probability of Warren Buffett being the richest person by year-end.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Warren Buffett being the richest person on December 31, with a 98.65% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO'.
• 2 Buffett's wealth is stable but unlikely to surpass competitors.
• 3 Historical trends show Buffett rarely holds the top position.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.