Will Weapons win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Weapons winning Best Original Screenplay.

Current market sentiment indicates a complete lack of confidence in Weapons winning Best Original Screenplay, with a 100% probability assigned to 'NO'. The AI model aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal chance for a surprise outcome. Given the high confidence level, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against Weapons winning.
• 2 AI probability slightly suggests a minimal chance for a win.
• 3 Confidence level is high, indicating strong market belief in the outcome.
• 4 No significant liquidity issues are noted in this market.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.