Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors that Wicked: For Good will not win Best Picture.

The current market probability indicates a firm belief that Wicked: For Good will not win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards, with a 100% NO stance. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 2% for a YES outcome, suggesting a consensus against its chances. With a confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market consensus strongly favors a NO outcome at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of YES at 2%.
• 3 Confidence level indicates strong belief in current market pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 153 hours.
• 5 No recent events have shifted sentiment towards a YES outcome.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.