Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027?

The market strongly favors that Zelenskyy and Putin will not meet in Italy before 2027.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.45%) that Zelenskyy and Putin will not meet in Italy or the Vatican before 2027. The AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for a meeting (4.05%), but overall confidence remains moderate at 65 out of 100. The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on available information.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.45%.
• 2 AI prediction suggests a lower probability for YES at 4.05%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7103 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.

For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.