🔬 Science & Health Markets

Will a human die in space by 2035?

58.36%

Market YES

42%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.86% -4.5 pts

45/100

Market shows a higher probability of a human dying in space by 2035.

Will Tetraspace shave on March 25th 2026?

92.04%

Market YES

8%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 87.54% -4.5 pts

55/100

High probability indicates strong belief Tetraspace will shave on March 25, 2026.

Will Lubbock qualify for double elimination at Science Bowl Nationals 2026?

84.24%

Market YES

16%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.06% -4.5 pts

50/100

Lubbock has a high probability of qualifying for double elimination at Science Bowl Nationals 2026.

Will Tetraspace bite her nails on 2026-03-26?

54.75%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.25% -4.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

57%

Market YES

43%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.5% -4.5 pts

45/100

Market shows a slight favor for Space Force operating a crewed spacecraft by 2040.

Will Tetraspace bite her nails on 2026-03-27?

59.02%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.52% -4.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the NASA Viper rover land on the moon before 2030?

56.94%

Market YES

43%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.44% -4.5 pts

45/100

The market indicates a slight chance of the Viper rover landing on the moon before 2030.

Will Elon Musk travel to space by 2035?

61.37%

Market YES

39%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 59.97% -4.5 pts

45/100

There is a 64.47% chance Elon Musk will travel to space by 2035.

Will NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves?

3.36%

Market YES

97%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.54% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low probability of the Moon being mentioned in NASA's Astronomy Picture of the Day.

Will a cancer therapy approved by the FDA before 2027 successfully cure >1 cancer type?

68.77%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.27% -4.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Free Lottery (virus to bacteria ratio)

6.39%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.39% +4 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

3.02%

Market YES

97%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $59K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.5% +3.5 pts

55/100

Low probability of NASA confirming aliens before 2027.

Will NASA announce that there is life on K2-18b with a high degree probability before January 1st, 2027?

1.97%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.47% +3.5 pts

60/100

The market indicates a low probability of NASA announcing life on K2-18b by 2027.

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

36.5%

Market YES

64%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $13K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market leans towards more mass sent uphill than downhill by 2050.

Pythom Space achieves successful launch by end of Q1 2026?

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.5% +3.5 pts

55/100

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Pythom Space's launch by Q1 2026.

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

19.3%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $31K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.42% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low market probability for a WHO H5N1 pandemic declaration before 2030.

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

21.13%

Market YES

79%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.44% +3.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of FDA approval for the sleep-reducing drug by 2040.

[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

13.94%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.44% +3.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates low likelihood for FDA approval of psilocybin treatment in 2026.

Will NASA assign asteroid YR4 an impact probability of ≥4.0% before June 2029?

2.48%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $18K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.98% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of NASA assigning asteroid YR4 an impact risk of ≥4.0% before June 2029.

Will Century High School (MN) qualify for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027?

4.73%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 32.82% +3.5 pts

45/100

Century High School has a low probability of qualifying for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027.

Will an adult movie be made in space and released by mid 2034?

39.63%

Market YES

60%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.13% +3.5 pts

50/100

The market leans towards no adult movie being made in space by mid-2034.

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

49%

Market YES

51%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $29K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.5% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market shows a near-even split on Luigi Magione's defense claim.

Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?

10.56%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.06% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of 100 people being in space simultaneously before 2030.

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

26.73%

Market YES

73%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $13K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 28.5% +3.5 pts

45/100

The market indicates a low likelihood of the space datacenter industry reaching $100M+ by 2029.