Will AOC be elected President in 2028?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will AOC be elected President in 2028?…

6.00%

12.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?…

15.91%

23.27%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$48K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will someone under 70 be elected US president in 2028?…

83.66%

76.66%

AI YES

-7

Edge pts

Confidence

$24K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?…

43.52%

45.11%

AI YES

+1.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$11K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?…

59.11%

53.38%

AI YES

-7

Edge pts

Confidence

$7K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will AOC be elected President in 2028?…	6.00%	12.00%	+6	45	$2K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?… near	15.91%	23.27%	+6	45	$48K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will someone under 70 be elected US president in 2028?… near	83.66%	76.66%	-7	45	$24K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?… near	43.52%	45.11%	+1.5	45	$11K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?… near	59.11%	53.38%	-7	45	$7K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Gavin Newsom become president in 2028?… near	14.83%	22.00%	+6	45	$4K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Kamala Harris be elected President in 2028?… near	3.00%	9.07%	+6	45	$2K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will a Republican be elected president in 2028?… near	40.45%	44.49%	+3.5	40	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 6.00% NO 94.00%

Manifold

YES 15.91% NO 84.09%

Manifold

YES 83.66% NO 16.34%

Manifold

YES 43.52% NO 56.48%

Manifold

YES 59.11% NO 40.89%

Spread: 80.7 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market probability for YES is 6%, indicating low confidence in AOC's election.
2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 12% for YES, indicating potential undervaluation.
3 The edge of 6 points suggests market sentiment may not fully reflect possible changes in AOC's political standing.
4 Confidence level is moderate at 45 out of 100, indicating uncertainty in the market's assessment.
5 With 23232 hours until expiry, there is ample time for events to influence market dynamics.