Events › AI & Tech › Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?…
AI & Tech 2 platforms 3 markets

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Combined AI YES
36.9%
Avg Confidence
62/100
Combined Volume
$311K
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?…
20.50%
34.50%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$242K
Volume
Polymarket
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?…
25.50%
28.50%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$69K
Volume
Manifold
Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?…
43.00%
49.50%
AI YES
+6.5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?…
 20.50% 34.50% +3
65
$242K
Polymarket
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?…
near 		25.50% 28.50% +3
65
$69K
Manifold
Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?…
near 		43.00% 49.50% +6.5
55
—
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 20.50% NO 79.50%
Polymarket
YES 25.50% NO 74.50%
Manifold
YES 43.00% NO 57.00%
Spread: 22.5 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome significantly.
  • 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view on the release.
  • 3 The edge indicates the market is well-balanced in its pricing.
  • 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the predictions.
  • 5 Unknown time to expiry may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category AI & Tech
Platforms 2 platforms
Markets 3 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 20.50%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?…
Polymarket 25.50%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?…
Manifold 43.00%
Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?…
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