Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Market indicates a low probability for GPT-6 release by June 30, 2026.

The current market probability for GPT-6 being released by June 30, 2026, stands at 25.50%, suggesting skepticism about its timely launch. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 28.5%, but both figures reflect a general expectation that the release may not occur as anticipated. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and Pulse AI is relatively narrow.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.