Events › Politics › Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nom…
Politics 1 platform 2 markets

Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?

Combined AI YES
8.4%
Avg Confidence
45/100
Combined Volume
$26K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 202…
2.36%
8.36%
AI YES
+6
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$14K
Volume
Manifold
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in…
2.36%
8.36%
AI YES
+6
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$13K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in th…
 2.36% 8.36% +6
45
$14K
Manifold
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for preside…
near 		2.36% 8.36% +6
45
$13K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 2.36% NO 97.64%
Manifold
YES 2.36% NO 97.64%
Spread: 0 pts — platforms broadly agree.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability favors 'NO' significantly at 97.64%.
  • 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for Trump at 8.36%.
  • 3 The edge of 6 indicates potential undervaluation of the YES side.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, reflecting uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive at 28361 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 2 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 2.36%
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 202…
Manifold 2.36%
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in…
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