Markets / Politics / Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 202...
Manifold Politics Expires in 982 days OPEN

Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?

2.36%
Market YES
97.64%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
8.36%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Low probability for Trump as the 2028 Republican nominee.

The current market indicates a 2.36% chance of Donald Trump being the Republican nominee for the 2028 election, with a strong consensus against it. Despite a higher AI probability of 8.36%, the overall sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO', suggesting skepticism about his candidacy.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability favors 'NO' significantly at 97.64%.
  • 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for Trump at 8.36%.
  • 3 The edge of 6 indicates potential undervaluation of the YES side.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, reflecting uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive at 28361 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major political endorsements for Trump
Significant changes in public opinion or polling data
Unexpected developments in Trump's legal situation
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $13,623
Liquidity $0
Resolves 07 Jun 2029
Status Open
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