Markets / Politics / Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in...
Manifold Politics Expires in 481 days OPEN

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?

2.36%
Market YES
97.64%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
8.36%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
YES side may be undervalued Edge: +6 pts

Market shows low probability for Trump as 2028 GOP nominee.

The market indicates a strong belief that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee for president in 2028, with a 97.64% probability against. However, the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance of 8.36% for his nomination, indicating potential undervaluation of the YES side by 6 points. Confidence in these predictions is moderate, with a score of 45 out of 100.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Trump's nomination.
  • 2 AI model suggests a higher probability for YES, indicating potential market undervaluation.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate, reflecting uncertainty in political predictions.
  • 4 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for significant political developments.
  • 5 Market liquidity may impact the ease of trading positions in this prediction.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major shifts in Trump's political standing or public support
Significant developments in the Republican Party's direction
Emergence of new candidates or political dynamics
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $12,813
Liquidity $0
Resolves 22 Jan 2028
Status Open
Related Markets
Netanyahu out by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?...
0.15% NO polymarket
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat...
0.85% NO polymarket