Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as…

56.61%

47.00%

AI YES

-9

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the…

44.00%

43.00%

AI YES

-1

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lin…	56.61%	47.00%	-9	60	$2K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic fo… near	44.00%	43.00%	-1	55	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 56.61% NO 43.39%

Manifold

YES 44.00% NO 56.00%

Spread: 12.6 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market probability favors YES at 56%, indicating some confidence in OpenAI's commitment.
2 Pulse AI probability suggests skepticism, with NO slightly favored at 53%.
3 The edge of -9 points indicates the NO side may be undervalued in the current market.
4 Confidence in the market is moderate at 60/100, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
5 Time to expiry is significant at 6978 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence sentiment.