Events › Other › Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any …
Other 1 platform 4 markets

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026?

Combined AI YES
38.6%
Avg Confidence
56/100
Combined Volume
$7K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026…
31.84%
34.40%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$2K
Volume
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 increase in every quarter of 2026?…
1.00%
20.00%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$3K
Volume
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of…
48.54%
51.54%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$1K
Volume
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026?…
44.88%
48.77%
AI YES
+5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of…
 31.84% 34.40% +3
60
$2K
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 increase in every quarter of 2026?…
near 		1.00% 20.00% +3
55
$3K
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarte…
near 		48.54% 51.54% +3
55
$1K
Manifold
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026…
near 		44.88% 48.77% +5
55
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 31.84% NO 68.16%
Manifold
YES 1.00% NO 99.00%
Manifold
YES 48.54% NO 51.46%
Manifold
YES 44.88% NO 55.12%
Spread: 47.5 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans towards stability in the S&P 500.
  • 2 Historical trends show less than 10% quarterly declines are common.
  • 3 Market pricing indicates a balanced view on potential volatility.
  • 4 Time to expiry allows for significant market developments.
  • 5 Liquidity appears adequate for trading activity in this market.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Other
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 4 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 31.84%
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026…
Manifold 1.00%
Will the S&P 500 increase in every quarter of 2026?…
Manifold 48.54%
Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of…
Manifold 44.88%
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026?…
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