Events › Business & Finance › Will the US experience a recession during 202…
Business & Finance 1 platform 3 markets

Will the US experience a recession during 2026?

Combined AI YES
35.9%
Avg Confidence
50/100
Combined Volume
$12K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?…
37.00%
24.07%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$10K
Volume
Manifold
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?…
40.00%
39.50%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$2K
Volume
Manifold
Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026?…
37.28%
42.48%
AI YES
+5.5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?…
 37.00% 24.07% +3.5
45
$10K
Manifold
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?…
near 		40.00% 39.50% +3.5
55
$2K
Manifold
Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026?…
near 		37.28% 42.48% +5.5
50
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 37.00% NO 63.00%
Manifold
YES 40.00% NO 60.00%
Manifold
YES 37.28% NO 62.72%
Spread: 3 pts — platforms broadly agree.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability shows a majority belief against a recession.
  • 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher risk than the market consensus.
  • 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in economic conditions.
  • 5 Edge suggests the market is currently fairly priced.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Business & Finance
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 3 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 37.00%
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?…
Manifold 40.00%
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?…
Manifold 37.28%
Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026?…
Related Events
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in February?…
36 markets
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?…
30 markets
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0…
15 markets
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’…
15 markets
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of th…
14 markets