Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous …

11.81%

15.31%

AI YES

+3.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous …

36.00%

40.50%

AI YES

+3.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$1K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any prev…	11.81%	15.31%	+3.5	50	$2K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any prev… near	36.00%	40.50%	+3.5	50	$1K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 11.81% NO 88.19%

Manifold

YES 36.00% NO 64.00%

Spread: 24.2 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
2 The probability of a YES outcome is low compared to historical GDP growth rates.
3 Current economic conditions do not support a 20% GDP jump.
4 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.5.
5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential economic shifts.