Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will any major Hollywood film released before 2027 be entirely AI-generated?

14.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

35%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

49.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

60.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $29K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will the Tesla RovoVan be available before 2027?

8%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026?

43.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

50%

Avg YES

Manifold $64K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

41.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

68.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

5.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $93K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

79.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $23K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

58.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $19K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

35.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will the "Dead by April" AI agent earn a net profit by April 3, 2026?

96.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

76.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users by end-2025?

31.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

11.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $49K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

37%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

27.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

17.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

20%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

24%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

46.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K