Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Russia-Ukraine Abu Dhabi talks produce a signed ceasefire agreement by March 15, 2026?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands?

10%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

60%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

29%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

6.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) sustain battle damage caused directly by Iranian military forces before 31 march

1.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Danny Devito play Wario in any official Nintendo movie before the end of 2029?

25.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Y Combinator fund 3 or more quantum-related startups in its next public batch update within the next 2 months?

5.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Elon Musk visit China before March 21 2026?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Russia attacks NATO by 2030?

27%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

46%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

10.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

54.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)

9.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Safe to travel to Iran by EOY 2032?

48%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

25.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?

9.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $9K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

35.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $14K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China officially acknowledge its new sixth-gen tailless stealth fighter prototypes (J-36 / J-50) before 2027

49.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China unveil a peer reviewed surgical cure for Alzheimers by the end of 2026?

9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

37.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Does war solve more problems than it creates?

37.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new agreement by March 20, 2026

2.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of War on 12/31/2026?

42%

Avg YES

Manifold