Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Valve announce new hardware prices in March 2026?

8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be a ceasfire in Ukraine at the end of 2027?

66.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

42.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $52K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

31.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

79%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Did anyone working on this bad movie ever win an an academy award? (March 16 2026)

21.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Iran’s Army joins forces with the protestors to fight against the Revolutionary Guard by Persian New Year.

9.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will GTA VI/GTA 6 win Game of the Year at The Game Awards (2026 or 2027)?

47.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?

34.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

41.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?

3.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?

7.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $27K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China get involved in the Iran war.

26%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries

30%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?

22.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

33.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $12K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029

3.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel & the US launch munitions at a target in Iran at any point before April 2nd, 2026?

96.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?

17.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Greg Yang win a turing award

35.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will nuclear ballistic missile submarines become obsolete by 2100?

59.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be US troops in Iran’s Kharg island before April 1?

5.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Jet Lag: the Game visits P.R.China before 2030?

36%

Avg YES

Manifold